Sweet 16 Complete
The Sweet 16 is complete on both tracks, and the public Forecast pages now reflect the full _r16 / Sweet-16-complete state.
The benchmark references below use the same chalk-aligned historical stage comparison shown on the Forecast pages. They are stage-context reads, not public-bracket-pool benchmarks.
Men
The men’s anchor entry (E01) now sits at 650 points, 6th of 10, with 40/56 picks correct through R64 + R32 + S16. The portfolio is still structurally alive: all 10 of 10 champion picks remain alive, and the surviving title surface still runs through Duke, Michigan, Arizona, and Illinois.
The benchmark read is weaker than it was after the Round of 32. Through the Sweet 16, the men’s portfolio now sits below its chalk-aligned historical stage baseline rather than above it. The defining new miss was Illinois over Houston, which created concentrated late-round path loss across the portfolio even though the overall title surface stayed alive.
Women
The women’s anchor entry (W-E01) now sits at 720 points, 2nd of 10, with 45/56 picks correct through R64 + R32 + S16. The women’s portfolio is still in a strong current position, but it is no longer fully intact: 9 of 10 champion picks remain alive, with the surviving title paths now concentrated in UConn, Texas, UCLA, and South Carolina.
The main new Sweet 16 consequence was Duke over LSU. That result eliminated one champion sleeve outright and created the dead future picks now visible in the women’s _r16 exposure layer. Even with the strong scoreboard position, the women’s benchmark-relative read also moved below the historical chalk-aligned stage baseline once the Sweet 16 was included.
For the full live-state tables, benchmark context, consequential-miss audit, and final synthesis, see the refreshed Men’s Forecast and Women’s Forecast pages.