Portfolio

Page Header / Boundary Note

This page is the public home for whole-portfolio analysis across both tournament tracks. It sits between the round-by-round Men’s Forecast / Women’s Forecast surfaces and the tournament-close Final Conclusions / Postmortem layer: Forecast keeps the dossier-level detail, this page owns entry-book structure and concentration/diversification read, and the postmortem keeps the terminal tournament-close synthesis.

Claim labels used on this page: Supported = directly supported by current repo artifacts Partial = directionally supported but not fully closed by one dedicated artifact Unresolved = not supportable from the repo-only Portfolio surface

Whole-Portfolio Bottom Line

The public portfolio answer is the same on both tracks: the books were built as ten-entry portfolios with clear anchor entries plus diversified sleeves, and the best terminal outcomes came from diversification rather than from the single-entry anchor. Supported

Portfolio Architecture At A Glance

Track Book size Anchor read Champion exposure split Portfolio-level read Status
Men 10 entries E01 / FM-01 / BP-01 on Duke Duke:4, Michigan:4, Arizona:1, Illinois:1 The book kept a clear Duke anchor but still held a real Michigan title sleeve cluster. Supported
Women 10 entries W-E01 / W-LEG-FM-01 / W-BP-01 on UConn UConn:4, Texas:2, UCLA:2, LSU:1, South Carolina:1 The book stayed top-tier but was still too concentrated on the UConn anchor. Supported

Cross-Track Concentration And Diversification Read

  • Men: concentration sat on the Duke anchor, but the portfolio still carried a diversified FM-01 core that covered Michigan as the eventual champion. Supported
  • Women: concentration sat on the UConn anchor, but the women portfolio also kept UCLA, Texas, LSU, and South Carolina title sleeves rather than collapsing into a one-team book. Supported
  • Cross-track read: the portfolio architecture was concentrated enough to express a primary answer and diversified enough to preserve winning branches after the anchor died. Supported
  • Stronger claims about one unified cross-track leverage ranking across every decisive game are not closed by one dedicated repo artifact on this page. Partial

Terminal Portfolio Outcome From Current Repo Artifacts

Track Anchor outcome Winning sleeve outcome Portfolio conclusion Status
Men The Duke anchor missed the title after Duke lost to UConn in the East E8. The four Michigan-title sleeves (E05-E08) finished 1-4; best score 1320. Diversification beat the anchor. Supported
Women The UConn anchor branch died in the national semifinal against South Carolina. The two UCLA-title sleeves (W-E07, W-E08) finished 1-2; best score 1510. Diversification beat the anchor. Supported
  • A full realized-versus-simulated distance decomposition for the portfolio as a whole is still not present as its own final artifact. Partial
  • Off-repo expectedness, popularity, or consensus comparisons do not belong on this repo-only Portfolio page. Unresolved

Evidence Boundary For The Portfolio Page

Claim class What this page can say
Supported Ten-entry book structure, anchor-versus-diversified sleeve logic, champion exposure summaries, the terminal read that diversification beat the anchor, and notebook-supported entry-priority / pivot / selected-entry inspection claims.
Partial Deeper whole-portfolio realized-versus-simulation distance claims, one complete cross-track leverage ranking across every decisive game, and stronger causal decomposition of why specific non-anchor sleeves won.
Unresolved Market expectedness, pick-popularity reads, off-repo narrative explanations, and off-repo counterfactual claims about what the field should have entered.

Per-Track Portfolio Detail Entry Points

  • Men’s Portfolio Detail: embedded men control-room notebook for entry priority, champion exposure, Final Four exposure, pivot games, and selected-entry inspection.
  • Women’s Portfolio Detail: embedded women control-room notebook for the same lower-level portfolio inspection role.