Technical reports
Detailed model reports, calibration analyses, forecast comparisons, and deep-dive material for both tournament tracks.
These reports are generated from the canonical marimo source notebooks and are intended for readers who want to go deeper than the primary forecast pages.
Portfolio now lives on the dedicated public Portfolio surface and links through to the men and women portfolio detail pages from there. The Men and Women primary pages show the top-level forecast summary; the reports below keep the technical layer bounded to model report, forecast report, and deep dive material.
Men’s track
| Report | Notebook | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Men’s Model Report | 02_men_model_report_marimo.py |
Model evaluation, fold diagnostics, 2026 matchup probabilities |
| Men’s Forecast Report | 03_men_forecast_report_marimo.py |
FM-01 / FM-03 / FM-02b comparison, bracket policy, simulation outputs |
| Men’s Model Deep Dive | 04_men_model_deep_dive_marimo.py |
Model coefficients, calibration curves, diagnostics |
Women’s track
| Report | Notebook | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Women’s Model Report | 02_women_model_report_marimo.py |
Model evaluation, fold diagnostics, 2026 matchup probabilities |
| Women’s Forecast Report | 03_women_forecast_report_marimo.py |
WFM-01 / WFM-03 comparison, bracket policy, simulation outputs |
| Women’s Model Deep Dive | 04_women_model_deep_dive_marimo.py |
Model coefficients, calibration curves, diagnostics |
Reports are regenerated by scripts/export_public_notebooks.py on each site build. Unchanged notebooks are skipped via hash-based incremental export.